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USDJPY enters the intervention “danger zone”

USDJPY briefly pushed above 145 in today’s session before a sharp pullback, with traders wary of recent jawboning from Japanese officials regarding the “one sided” trade in the Yen may be setting the Japanese MoF up for another round on FX intervention that we saw late in 2022. Some sharp moves in the Yen in the last day have had t...

June 30, 2023
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Aussie inflation cools with big miss in CPI print – AUDUSD dumps

Australian CPI figures today see a rapid cooling in Aussie inflation, coming in at 5.6% y/y against an expected 6.1% and a big drop from April’s 6.8% shock to the upside. This saw a rapid re-pricing of rate hike odds at the next RBA meeting on July 4th, with interbank futures signaling odds have dropped to 17% of a 25bp move, from 25% pre-CPI....

June 28, 2023
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GBPJPY Breaks Through to 2015 Levels

The GBJPY has continued to climb strongly to the upside, since the end of March 2023 and currently trades just below the 183.00 price level. This move higher is driven by a combination of the weakness of the Japanese Yen and renewed strength in the British Pound. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has begun to sound warning bells regarding potentially exce...

June 28, 2023
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FX wrap – GBP volatile on BoE surprise, JPY and CHF under pressure, USD follows yields up

USD was firmer on Thursday, largely due to a rally in treasury yields with the DXY tracking the 10 year yield higher to a peak of 102.470 after bouncing off the psychological 102 support level. US data was mixed with Unemployment claims and current account figures coming in worse than expected, but this was offset by a beat in Existing home sales. ...

June 23, 2023
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AUDUSD testing key support after RBA minutes

The RBA minutes of their June meeting where another surprise hike had most of the market off side were released today, and they were surprisingly dovish. The board made clear the decision between a hike and hold was finely balanced and seems to suggest further hikes may require a high bar for inflation readings to sway them. AUD reaction was swift ...

June 20, 2023
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Asia Morning FX – AUD and EUR surge, USD takes a hit post FOMC, BoJ ahead

USD tumbled in Thursday’s session in the wake of a dovish Powell presser (relative to statement/dot plots) saw the Dollar bears in charge. This, coupled with a hawkish ECB and mixed US data saw DXY fall from highs of 103.38 in the European morning to a low of 102.08, with the psychological 102 level the next obvious support. A hawkish ECB, where ...

June 16, 2023
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AUDUSD Soars on RBA Hike, EURUSD underperforms, CAD, GBP, JPY wrap

USD was firmer on Tuesday amid a light news calendar sparse in any key risk events. The US Dollar index again having a choppy session in a tight range with EURUSD weakness giving the Dollar a tailwind, also helping the greenback was ramped up US growth forecasts from Goldman Sachs and the World Bank hitting the wires. EUR was the G10 underpe...

June 7, 2023
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Could the Reserve Bank of Australia hike rates further?

The Australian interest rate is currently at 3.85% and the most recent consumer price index (CPI) released at 6.8% which indicates slightly higher than expected inflation growth (expectation was 6.4% with previous data at 6.3%). This puts more focus on the upcoming interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). While further rate ...

June 6, 2023
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Hot CPI fails to hold AUDUSD above key level

Australian CPI released today surprised to the upside coming in at 6.8% y/y , well above the consensus of 6.4% which itself was  an increase on March’s figure of 6.3% Coming into the figure futures markets had priced in a measly 2.5% chance of a hike next week by the RBA, that changed dramatically with odds jumping to 18.8% for a 25bp hike ac...

May 31, 2023
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AUD analysis – waiting for a catalyst – range trading and mean reversion opportunities

The Aussie dollar has been fairly directionless since late February with it seemingly waiting for a catalyst to break it’s ranges and take the next leg up or down, data this week has failed to provide that. This opens up a couple of very good opportunities for traders, range trading the AUDUSD and mean reversion trades on the AUDNZD. Starting ...

May 18, 2023
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GBPUSD analysis – Is the Bank of England approaching peak rates?

The Bank of England (BoE) is due to release its interest rate decision today, with markets expecting a 12th consecutive hike to take interest rates to 4.50%. There has been increasing speculation that the BoE is reaching its terminal rates and could follow the lead of the US FOMC and the ECB in signaling a slowdown or pause on further rate hikes fo...

May 11, 2023
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Market Analysis 8-12 May 2023

XAUUSD Analysis 8 – 12 May 2023 The gold price outlook is positive in the medium term. Although last week's closing of the buying pressure bar would indicate a loss of buying momentum due to the weekly selloff. But the price is still moving above the 2000 support, it is very likely that the price will continue to move above the 2000 level ...

May 9, 2023
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ECB hikes rates to 3.75%

Following the lead of the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its decision to hike rates by 25 basis points, taking interest rates in the Eurozone to 3.75% overnight. In the lead-up to the ECB meeting, there was some market speculation for a potential 50bps hike, which saw the EUR/USD trade to a 12-month high, reaching the...

May 5, 2023
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FOMC hikes rates but signals pause

In the most recent meeting, the US Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25 basis points, as anticipated, to take interest rates in the US to 5.25%, slightly beyond the terminal rate of 5.1%. However, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to the key support level of 100.80 which was last reached in April and February 2023, following the release of the rate hike ...

May 4, 2023
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BoJ Governor Ueda’s first monetary policy meeting

The Bank of Japan is due to hold its first monetary policy meeting under new Governor Ueda on the 29th of April 2023. Since his appointment, Governor Ueda has frequently indicated that the BoJ will continue with its current easing stance on monetary policy with targets for long and short-term interest rates. Although headline and core inflation run...

April 28, 2023
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