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FX Analysis – USD flat ahead of NFP, EUR rallies on PMI beats, JPY lags

Beats in US employment data ahead of today’s key Non-farm payroll figure saw the US Dollar Index eke out another gain after weakness in the APAC session reversed in the European session. DXY up for the 5th straight day, having its longest winning streak since September and it’s best start to a year since 2005. DXY hit a high of 102.53, st...

January 5, 2024
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Market Analysis – Dollar rips, AAPL dips, Oil take a wild ride

The new trading year kicked off with a dip in equities with Big Tech leading losses in Tuesday’s session, AAPL being the big loser after a downgrade from Barclays citing concern in iPhone demand. Yields and the USD ripped higher, the US Dollar Index having its biggest daily gain since March 2023. Crude oil capped off an interesting session with a...

January 3, 2024
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FX Analysis – Fed pivot bets to be tested this week

FX markets enter the new year with a continuing backdrop of a weaker USD as traders bet on a Fed pivot in the first half of the year. That narrative could be tested later in the week with some key US manufacturing and employment data, including the monthly Non-farm payrolls. Key levels look to be tested this week in different FX pairs with AUDUS...

January 2, 2024
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Market Analysis – Gold, USDCHF, Crude Oil

Wednesday’s session saw another drift higher in equities with volumes still in holiday mode and few major catalysts to drive market action. There were some big moves in safe haven assets with USDCHF tanking and Gold breaking a key resistance level, a big build in inventories also saw Crude Oil take a tumble. USDCHF The Swiss Franc surged...

December 28, 2023
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FX Analysis – AUDUSD, XAUUSD – Testing Key Levels

The US Dollar has continued its year end decline after the holiday break in thin volume. Traders still holding onto the view of a dovish Fed come 2024 seeing yields also drop creating a headwind for the Greenback. AUDUSD The Aussie pushed has pushed higher this week, taking advantage of a weak USD and a risk on environment. AUDUSD breaking th...

December 27, 2023
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Market Analysis – USD slides, AUD hits key level, Gold rallies

Risk on returned to global markets in Thursdays session with equities rebounding strongly on weak US data that refuelled hopes of a faster pace to the Feds rate cutting cycle come 2024. USD sold off sharply partly due to month-end flows ahead of the holidays but accelerated by a bis miss in Q3 US GDP which came in at 4.9% vs the expected 5.2%. T...

December 22, 2023
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FX Analysis – DXY, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD

USD was offered in Tuesdays session, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) printing a low of 102.060 ahead of the last major economic release for the year in Fridays  Core PCE reading.  Hawkish leaning comments from the Feds Bostic that he only sees two Fed rate cuts in 2024, less than the Fed median of three and well under the market pricing of six, fa...

December 20, 2023
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FX Analysis – USDCAD, USDJPY, AUDUSD

FX traders have some tier one data releases to look forward to today, including the last major central bank meeting in the form of the Bank of Japan. RBA monetary policy minutes and Canadian CPI also having market moving potential.  AUDUSD The Aussie was modestly in the green in Monday’s session after initial strength that saw it outperfor...

December 19, 2023
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The Week Ahead – US and UK inflation, RBA minutes, BoJ meeting

Equity markets enter the second last week of 2023 on a roll, with US equities rallying for seven straight weeks and seeing all time highs in the Dow. The risk on rally was turbo charged last week after a dovish pivot from the US Fed in the December meeting saw yields and the Dollar tank and everything else bid heavily with rallies in Gold, Oil, ...

December 18, 2023
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FX Analysis – Dollar dumps, Gold surges on Fed pivot

Wednesdays FOMC meeting was always going to be about whether we’d see a hawkish pushback against market expectations of a dovish Fed in 2024, or a validation of those expectations, from the market reaction to the meeting, traders decided the latter is the conclusion. Rates were kept on hold at 5.35%-5.5% as expected but the updated dot plot an...

December 14, 2023
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FX Analysis – Gold continues slide, USD bid ahead of CPI, JPY dumps

USD was mildly bid on Monday ahead of a very busy calendar starting with US CPI later today. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to a high of 104.26, testing its trendline resistance before paring back to finish the session modestly in the green. DXY continuing to trade in the tight range between its 200-Day MA to the downside and resistance at around 1...

December 12, 2023
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FX Analysis – Yen surges on hawkish BoJ, Gold holds key level, AUDUSD bounces off key support

Equities were green across the board in Thursday’s session, led by the Nasdaq which was up almost 200 points on renewed AI optimism after Google unveiled its newest AI model, Gemini. But it was the FX space where the big moves happened. JPY surged to have its best day of 2023 on the back of hawkish commentary from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda h...

December 8, 2023
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FX Analysis – USD pushes above key level, AUD ahead of the the RBA

USD bounced back to start the first full week of December after a horror run in November where the Dollar Index (DXY) fell around 3%. DXY breaking through the 200 Day SMA resistance and printing a high of 103.850. Sour risk sentiment and higher treasury yields (particularly in the short end) helping DXY erase the Powell inspired drop on Friday.  W...

December 5, 2023
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FX Analysis – USD continues decline on dovish Fedspeak, JPY outperforms, AUD and NZD breakout

USD continued its recent decline on Tuesday with the US dollar index (DXY) hitting its lowest level since mid-August at 102.60 before finding some support at the 61.8 Fib level.  The decline accelerated after voting Fed member Waller who is seen as a hawk, made some dovish remarks regarding rates and inflation namely he was “increasingly confide...

November 29, 2023
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FX Analysis – EUR and GBP rally on PMIs, USDJPY tests key level.

Markets were predictably quite due to holidays in the US and Japan on Thursday. USD was marginally softer overall with DXY dropping to test the support at the 200-day MA before recovering modestly amid the holiday lull for Thanksgiving. Source:TradingView.com EURUSD managed mild gains with price action choppy around the 1.0900 level but ev...

November 24, 2023
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