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Hold tight: trading the RBA

With core CPI missing expectations and some slight deceleration in other areas such as retail sales an overall service economic activity. The RBA is likely to hold tight and not raise rates on Tuesday. We say this with some confidence, based on the communication coming from RBA governor Bullock. She had emphasised the importance of the second qu...

November 1, 2024
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Deja vu of 2023

Market action and underline breath of the last two and half weeks has been extreme and rather eye opening.  The S&P 500 has made 38 record all time highs in 2024 so far, however since its most recent peak on July 16 it has traded lower ever since. Now we need to put that into perspective, the pullback since its July high is 4.75 percent to ...

November 1, 2024
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An oldie but a goodie – Why central bank differentials still work

2024 continues to be an interesting year for FX. Even more now that the starters gun has been fired with the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Canada as well as the likes of the Riksbank and SNB all starting to their respective cash rates from COVID peaks. This brings us to the next stage – who is next, who is going the other way and whe...

November 1, 2024
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FX analysis – Gold hits new closing high, USDJPY holds above 150, DXY flat despite rising yields

Gold surged again in Monday’s session despite a rise in US Treasury yields and setting a new closing high. There was little fundamental news to drive the rally though a comparable surge in the Crypto markets has seemingly given the other “alternative” currency a tailwind. This is four up sessions for gold and with momentum behind it is eyeing...

March 5, 2024
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FX Analysis – USD dips, USDJPY holds above 150, EURUSD rallies

USD sold off on Monday with DXY failing to hold above 104 after finding some resistance at the 100 DAY SMA and dipping from a high of 104.20 to a low of 103.70 where the 200 Day SMA held as support. The move lower in USD came despite higher UST yields, which would normally support the USD. EURUSD was supported by the weaker USD with EURUSD r...

February 27, 2024
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FX Analysis – USD whipsaws , AUDNZD hits new lows, Gold holds key support

USD was ultimately flat in Thursdays session after a rollercoaster of a ride, DXY printed a low in the European session of 103.43 before rallying up to the 100 Day SMA at 104.10 after better than expected US Jobless claims.  Flash PMIs for February were mixed with a fall in Services but a rise in Manufacturing, DXY heading into the APAC session ju...

February 23, 2024
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Market analysis – NVDA rips higher on earnings, Gold holds key support, NZD outperforms

The much awaited NVDA Q4 earnings didn’t disappoint with the tech giant knocking it out of the park, handily beating analysts' expectations on the top and bottom lines. For the quarter, Nvidia reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.16 on revenue of $22.1 billion. Analysts were expecting EPS of $4.60 on revenue of $20.4 billion. For c...

February 22, 2024
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FX analysis – USD drops ahead of FOMC minutes, CAD falls on cool CPI, AUD and NZD supported by PBoC decision

USD sold off in Tuesdays session after US traders returned from holiday. DXY falling for a 5th straight session after finding stiff resistance at the psychological 105 level and breaking below its 100 DMA before finding some support at the 200 DMA before retracing somewhat as market risk sentiment soured during the US equity session. Lower yields a...

February 21, 2024
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FX analysis – AUDUSD at key resistance ahead of RBA minutes and wage data

With the US closed for a holiday FX markets on Monday struggled to find much direction though China re-opening in the green after an extended leave did lend some support to the Aussie dollar ahead of todays RBA minutes. The February 6th RBA meeting saw a statement that had a bit of both ways, acknowledging broad progress on the inflation front but ...

February 20, 2024
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FX Analysis – USD dips , GBP falls on cool CPI, JPY jawboning , EUR up on data

USD dipped in Wednesday’s session after the CPI inspired surge on Tuesday. The US dollar index (DXY) hitting resistance at the 105 level and dropping to a low of 104.65. Reports of Fed Chair Powell downplaying Tuesday's hotter than expected CPI along with the Fed's Goolsbee stating US inflation is still consistent with the Fed's path back to targ...

February 15, 2024
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FX Analysis – USDJPY holds key level, AUDNZD has best day of year, USD quiet ahead of CPI

USD Dollar saw mild strength in Monday’s session, DXY trading either side of the psychological 104.00 level but again being capped to the upside by the 100-day SMA resistance. The was little in the way of a catalyst with no tier one data released, that will change today with US CPI figures released, which will help market participants and the Fed...

February 13, 2024
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FX Analysis – AUD, NZD drop on China data ,USD up, JPY underperforms, EUR whipsaws

USD saw gains on Thursday with the US Dollar index (DXY) pushing above 104 before again finding resistance at the 100-day SMA. A rise in UST yields after a better than expected jobless claims figures. In data ahead Dollar traders will be focussing on the US CPI revisions. EUR was mostly flat vs the Dollar with EURUSD trading down to 1.0750 b...

February 9, 2024
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FX Analysis – USD drifts lower, AUD outperforms after RBA, Gold and JPY push higher

USD drifted lower in Tuesday’s session, the US dollar index retracing a good chunk of Mondays gains. Regional bank fears were at the fore, with NYCB continuing its steep decline in an otherwise quiet session news wise. This saw the haven of bonds bid, sending yields lower and dragging the USD down with them. DXY dipping back below its 100 Day SMA...

February 7, 2024
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FX analysis – AUD dips ahead of RBA, USD follows yields higher on Hawkish Powell, Gold hits 1-week lows

USD was bid in Mondays session with the US Dollar Index following US treasury yields higher after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell over the weekend where he pushed back on market pricing of rate cuts starting in March. A beat in the ISM Services PMI data also supporting DXY as rate cut odds in March dropped down to around 17% from the 35% cha...

February 6, 2024
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FX analysis – USD pops on FOMC, Cool CPI hits AUD, Yields support JPY

USD started the session weaker with the US dollar index (DXY) hitting a low of 102.94, as it was weighed on by dovish economic data, with misses in ADP employment and Employment Cost Index. This turned around dramatically after what was seen as a hawkish result out of the FOMC where the Fed left rates unchanged as expected but pushed back on the ma...

February 1, 2024
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