Is the price of wheat ready to bounce?

The price of wheat is finally starting to show positive signs after an aggressive sell off that has been ongoing since May 2022. There is hope that the price of the commodity may begin to climb again with the price finally finding some support.  The price has been impacted by growing fears that production may slip may increasing volatility and increasing in price. Pressure from Global Warming has effected the production/farming of the grain reducing supply. India in particular which is the second largest producer of wheat, has suffered from rising heat levels with its production dropping by 3% in 2021/22. Furthermore, the constant ambiguity surrounding the Russian and Ukraine crisis still has the potential move the price even higher adding to a potential supply crunch.

Technical Analysis

The Price chart for wheat shows how the price ran during the initial stages of the Russian and Ukraine crisis, before failing to breakout and entering an aggressive downtrend. This shift is essentially a long-term reversion to the mean moving back towards the 200-day average and prior long term supports. The price action is a common follow on from sharp and fast rises in prices. The price has now settled and consolidating between $770-$850 and importantly broken out of the downtrend.

Adding to the evidence for a potential reversal is that there is a divergence between the RSI and the current price. As it can be seen, the RSI is itself in an upward channel and has crossed through the 50 level. This can be compared to the actual price which is still consolidating. Divergences can be an early indicator that a reversal is about to occur.

This current price action is showing the potential for a bounce based on the factors discussed above and presents a potential long trade with a risk reward of around 2.5:1. For this trade, the recent resistance point of $940 can be the first target. If the price can pass through this level, it may be able to reach $970. Placing a stop loss below the recent low wick at 830 provides solid risk management in case the price goes in a different direction.