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FX Analysis – Gold continues slide, USD bid ahead of CPI, JPY dumps

12 December 2023 By Lachlan Meakin

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USD was mildly bid on Monday ahead of a very busy calendar starting with US CPI later today. The US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to a high of 104.26, testing its trendline resistance before paring back to finish the session modestly in the green. DXY continuing to trade in the tight range between its 200-Day MA to the downside and resistance at around 104.25 to the upside. USD traders have a busy week ahead, along with CPI today, PPI and the FOMC rate announcement are ahead tomorrow.

The Japanese Yen dumped after a Bloomberg report citing BoJ sources that said the BoJ sees little need to end negative rates in their December meeting. This saw rates markets rapidly reprice what was a 20% chance of a rate hike, down to just 5%. This translated to a short squeeze on USDJPY as carry traders flooded back in and saw the pair rally to a high of 146.46.

Gold saw another large decline, with XAUUSD dropping almost $30 USD an ounce, breaking through the psychological 2000 level and hitting 3-week lows. XAUUSD now sitting on its 50% Fib retracement support, with the next support lower around the 1950-52 level at the 200-day MA and 61.8 fib level.

Ahead today, the real data starts, headlining will be US CPI where the Y/Y figure is expected to moderate to 3.1% vs 3.2% previous.

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